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-   -   Sunday May 29 (http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?t=678)

Smokin Joe 05-27-2011 08:51 AM

Sunday May 29
 
From current SPC Day 3

...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...

STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT AS WELL AS
IN A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NRN
PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES EAST OF STRONGER CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS WITH MULTICELLS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

Derecho 05-28-2011 02:47 PM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
I'm down here on the Michigan border and I'm watching this one closely!

Code:

...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...
  THE PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE
  GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NWD SUNDAY NIGHT.  A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
  MAY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD POSE A THREAT
  FOR HAIL.  WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY
  MORNING ACTIVITY...AS RICHER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/
  AND EML PLUME ADVECT NEWD DURING THE DAY. A SLOWLY BUILDING UPPER
  RIDGE AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
  WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND BEST
  CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR NORTH
  OF WARM FRONT.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONCERN
  THAT A WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
  THE BOUNDARY BEFORE THE WARMER EML PLUME ARRIVES.  IF THIS OCCURS
  0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
  SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INTO THE
  AFTERNOON.  THUS THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE
  THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS AS WELL AS A
  SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS.


davefootball123 05-28-2011 02:55 PM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
Looks like i am on the edge of the Slight Risk. Hopefully...Also tuesday is something we really need to watch. Dynamics are good.

Smokin Joe 05-29-2011 12:18 AM

I'm thinking of going out tomorrow if outlook stays good through morning so if anyone has any targets in mind or sees probability change for better or worse or is going out themselves post to this thread. I'll check back and if anything pops I'll post tomorrow what I'm seeing if I end up going....

davefootball123 05-29-2011 01:21 AM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
Go to the southwest and watch the radar.

obwan 05-29-2011 08:47 AM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
4 Attachment(s)
This afternoons outlook from SPC. In graphics things look good for some sevelopment but in their text they don't sound so confident.

here is the text
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES

...MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN
MO/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEING FORCED MAINLY BY WARM
ADVECTION NEAR A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS IS EXPECTED TO HELP STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS...NAM...AND
ECMWF. THIS POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/VEERING PROFILES...FEEDING A MOIST AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INDICATIONS ARE A CONCENTRATED SWATCH OF
DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL INCLUDING THE
CHICAGO AREA...AND PROCEEDING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH STORM
MODE MAY DISRUPT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AREAS OF ROTATION
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP LOADING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.



Day 1 this afternoons oulook, hail prob, tornado prob and wind prob

Smokin Joe 05-29-2011 03:40 PM

On my way down

DarkSky 05-29-2011 05:29 PM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
Code:

999
 ACCN10 CWTO 292022
 FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:22 PM EDT SUNDAY 29 MAY 2011.
 THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 4.00 AM MONDAY.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
 EVENING IN SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX
 OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS
 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 100
 KM/H, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN ONE
 HOUR OR LESS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
 REGIONS CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
 SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING GIVING OTHER
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN
 ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
 MAIN THREATS. SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
 FOR REGIONS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A
 SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR
 CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO. ELSEWHERE NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 EXPECTED.


---------------------------------------------------------------------
 A THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS SEVERE IF IT PRODUCES ONE OR MORE OF THE
 FOLLOWING:

 - WIND GUSTS OF 90 KM/H OR GREATER.
  - HAIL OF 2 CENTIMETRES IN DIAMETER OR GREATER.
  - RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MILLIMETRES OR GREATER IN ONE HOUR OR LESS.
  - A TORNADO.

NOTE: THIS FORECAST IS ISSUED TWICE DAILY FROM MAY 1 TO SEPTEMBER  30.

END/OSPC


DarkSky 05-29-2011 06:11 PM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
Code:

WWCN11 CWTO 292119
 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 5:19 PM EDT SUNDAY 29 MAY 2011.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
 =NEW= WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY
 =NEW= CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK
 =NEW= SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY
 =NEW= WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY.

      A LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING RAPIDLY
      FROM THE WEST AT 90 KM/H WILL MOVE INTO REGIONS NEAR THE
      MICHIGAN BORDER AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE
      CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 KM/H,
      LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN ONE HOUR OR
      LESS.  FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO HAVE BEEN REPORTED
      WITH THESE STORMS IN MICHIGAN, HENCE THERE IS A RISK OF BRIEF
      TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

      MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
      PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

TORNADO WATCH FOR:
      WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
      SARNIA - LAMBTON.

      RISK OF TORNADOES THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE STORM
      COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN.

      THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
      THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER
      CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
      ELGIN
      LONDON - MIDDLESEX
      SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
      DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
      OXFORD - BRANT.

      SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS
      EVENING.  THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
      SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
      RAINFALL.  MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
      BULLETINS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 A LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS THIS
 EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 100 KM/H, LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN
 ONE HOUR OR LESS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
 EVENING.

REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC


Reffik 05-29-2011 07:33 PM

Re: Sunday May 29
 
So you're saying this was a BAD weekend to adopt a new, thunderstorm-untested dog?

(Well, I guess it meant I was staying up late anyways)


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