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-   -   Severe Storms Possible Friday (http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?t=300)

Derecho 05-03-2010 10:58 AM

Severe Storms Possible Wed & Friday
 
EDIT: CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NOW.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across southern Ontario.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
ON DAY 5...CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ACCELERATES
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HERE...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE OPTIMAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR A LARGE-SCALE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

DarkSky 05-03-2010 01:28 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Hmm... I don't trust any forecasts beyond 24hrs. (if that) Yesterdays forecast was for cloud and rain today. It's been blue skies and strong sunshine all day long. My guess is that each 24 hrs the chance of the forecast being correct splits by 50% :)

Smokin Joe 05-03-2010 03:00 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Giddy up! I'm off Friday so keeping my fingers crossed.....hope I'm not a jinx

Derecho 05-03-2010 03:35 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe (Post 717)
Giddy up! I'm off Friday so keeping my fingers crossed.....hope I'm not a jinx

I'm off Friday, too, and Saturday! That's a good 48 hours of room for the storms to move. Looking at dewpoint temperatures, I'm concerned for potential because GFS is only indicating 50F around here... with the good dews staying in Ohio/PA. Still a few days, this bears watching!!

(It's like the week before Christmas)

xxCanuck 05-03-2010 04:47 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSky (Post 716)
Hmm... I don't trust any forecasts beyond 24hrs. (if that) Yesterdays forecast was for cloud and rain today. It's been blue skies and strong sunshine all day long. My guess is that each 24 hrs the chance of the forecast being correct splits by 50% :)

I happen to agree. Here we were supposed to have Rain and potential for Thunderstorms but its a beautiful day out.

Derecho 05-04-2010 06:55 AM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
I'm not too impressed by the temperatures on Friday. 15C.

There is potential tomorrow for severe thunderstorms, a slight risk is in effect from Woodstock southward. Hail and damaging winds are the forecast main threat.

Derecho 05-04-2010 01:01 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
So, it's looking good now. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for most of Southern Ontario. Potential exists for bow echo thunderstorms and perhaps supercells through the early afternoon to evening across southern Ontario ahead of a cold front!

:D

Derecho 05-04-2010 07:38 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Wed & Friday
 
Valid 21z tomorrow: ;)

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...EHI_3000_M.png

Derecho 05-05-2010 09:58 AM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Slight risk reissued for southern Ontario today by the SPC!

From EC:


TODAY AND TONIGHT..CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. AS THE
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD, THE COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Derecho 05-05-2010 02:54 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:19 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 5 MAY 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= HURON - PERTH.

STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL CROSS THE REGIONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS.


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