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-   -   Jun 27th, 2010 (http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?t=388)

Smokin Joe 06-25-2010 09:25 AM

Jun 27th, 2010
 
Code:

SPC AC 250730
 
  DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
  VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
  VICINITY/MIDWEST...
 
  ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES...
  WHILE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS GRADUALLY
  AMPLIFY...MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND MODERATELY STRONG FLOW
  ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SEVERE
  TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/ADJACENT MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY. WHILE SUCH UNKNOWN
  MESOSCALE DETAILS COMPLICATE THE FORECAST...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE
  WARM SECTOR AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE EARLY DAY MCS SHOULD
  AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING LAKE MI
  VICINITY SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS
  ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MORE LIKELY...MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/LINEAR
  SEGMENTS WILL EVOLVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN LARGELY
  UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE.
  DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.



Well hopefully this one pans out better for southern on.......

davefootball123 06-25-2010 06:20 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
Look slike we have been added to sautardays slight risk for storms. Mabye the moderate back in the plains will coem this way

Derecho 06-26-2010 02:51 AM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
New day 2 issued, looking pretty decent for severe weather across the region. Slight Risk expanded, S ON right in the middle.

EDIT: New day one drops all Ontario from the slight risk.

davefootball123 06-26-2010 10:40 AM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
Ya but we still hopefully hace sunday

Storm Chaser 06-26-2010 12:03 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sre...run=2010062609

davefootball123 06-26-2010 01:16 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
Wow not to bad for tornado ingerduents. Mabye we will be a little more lucky this time around , looks to be sunday afternoon into the evening....GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES...
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MASS FLUX SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/NRN LOWER MI INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY ALONG SRN EXTENT OF THE LLJ WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD. HIGH
THETAE AIR MASS...PW VALUES /1.5-2 INCHES/...SPREADING NEWD
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TSTMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. NEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS INTO LOWER MI AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING MCS
TO RE-INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONGEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS MORE LIKELY INTO THE OH VALLEY GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR VALUES
WITH SWD EXTENT. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.

AMPLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF MULTIPLE
EASTWARD MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS/POTENTIAL MCS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY ULTIMATELY OUTRUN THE GREATER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS FAR EAST AS
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

DarkSky 06-26-2010 03:01 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
Hopefully any storm activity will occur between now and Wednesday, with clear skies starting Wednesday as I'll be up north for a few days hopefully enjoying some sunshine :D

Smokin Joe 06-26-2010 05:31 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
If I'm reading that first paragraph right are they saying that the better chance for severe is looking more like it will be over southern on?

Smokin Joe 06-26-2010 05:33 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
Is it better to have the low level mass flux over u in the afternoon? That's what I mean sorry bout the double post

davefootball123 06-26-2010 05:37 PM

Re: Jun 27th, 2010
 
heres what ec has to say
Sunday..Scattered thunderstorms are likely over Southern Ontario.
There is a slight risk that some of these storms may be severe with
heavy downpours large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
There is also a slight risk of a tornado.


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