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-   -   Tue/Jul.18, 2012 - Severe outbreak, 2 confirmed tornadoes (http://www.ontariostorms.com/showthread.php?t=1026)

Storm Chaser 07-16-2012 06:19 AM

Tue/Jul.18, 2012 - Severe outbreak, 2 confirmed tornadoes
 
Tomorrow certainly is very interesting. Although coverage may not be the greatest, a broken line of supercells may occur. It may make for some excellent chasing opportunities tomorrow, good luck to everyone!

harrisale 07-16-2012 11:57 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
WOW. Things are really shaping up.

EHI's of 3+ for a large area of Southern Ontario, including my home area of Guelph. Max CAPE reaching over 3000 J/KG in some areas with some good shear. 36C temperatures, surface dewpoints approaching 80. The ingredients are there for a great chase day!

Only factor may be the timing of the arrival of a cold front, which may push storms later into the evening/night.

Either way, gearing up tonight!

davefootball123 07-16-2012 01:36 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Parameters are quite favourable for severe storms tomorrow however the greatest risk for severe storms will be in Eastern Ontario into Southern Quebec...SREF has nice sig tors in Eastern Ontario with favourable EHI, SRH, and 0-6km shear values...When looking at high res guidance...models like the WRF-NMM and NAM-NMMB break out numerous storms in Eastern Ontario/Southern Quebec into upstate New York and Vermont where forcing along the front is greatest. Continuing the look at the high res solutions, they all leave South Central Ontario free of any convection with some storms forming in Extreme Southwestern Ontario. With that being said...given the favourable parameters, if some storms can form in South Central Ontario, they will have a lot to work with and could be very severe with very large hail and damaging winds. It all depends on if they go up or not :whistling:

Storm Chaser 07-16-2012 02:06 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
No reason why they shouldn't go up, precipitation fields on many models continue to get better...I hope something happens

davefootball123 07-16-2012 02:14 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
GFS has backed off QPF to less than .5 inches...NAM is the odd one out like it has been all year comparing to other models. Then again these are just models. Who knows what might happen.

davefootball123 07-16-2012 02:53 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
NWS Buffalo mentioned greatest severe threat will be from Buffalo to Rochester and areas north.

qcstorm 07-16-2012 10:13 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Getting excited for tomorrow, it's definitely gonna be very active in my neck of the woods. I'm sure I'll get some severe weather but I am wondering if supercells will develop. SPC has mentioned the chance for an isolated tornado. Hopefully helicity levels will be favourable and like said earlier, EHI levels will be favorable for rotation. Although I think large hail will be a secondary threat tomorrow because of the very and widespread warm/humid air mass and freezing levels occurring above 14 kilo feet. But who knows, if storm tops make it above 40 000- 45 000 feet, maybe more large hail could be expected. Finally does anyone know how many rounds of storms may affect me or really anyone east of Toronto. The models are in pretty good accordance with at least one big round of storms passing between noon and early afternoon, but after that, details are a little more blurry.

Storm Chaser 07-16-2012 10:28 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Besides some weak morning convection, one big round in the mid - late afternoon can be expected.

davefootball123 07-16-2012 10:31 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Storm Chaser (Post 5177)
Besides some weak morning convection, one big round in the mid - late afternoon can be expected.

Just better hope we don't get any cloud debris....

Storm Chaser 07-16-2012 10:37 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
morning convetion will likely stay east of lake ontario and clear before 10am

qcstorm 07-16-2012 10:44 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Cloud cover should be expected to clear up because of the low level jet stream from 850 mb of 35-50 knots. Nonetheless again these are only predictions and any morning convection is bound to bring cloud cover along with it.

Storm Chaser 07-17-2012 06:47 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Slight risk has been expanded

harrisale 07-17-2012 07:16 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Largest threat will remain east but most of southern Ontario is now included in the SLGT area. Question now is how far east so I bother driving. Seems like supercells may be confined to east of Ontario.

Storm Chaser 07-17-2012 07:23 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
I would go southwest instead, I'm seeing another area of thunderstorms from Hamilton to London

Anspray 07-17-2012 07:59 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
No storms for windsor essex today???? very slight chance of a storm, let alone severe?

qcstorm 07-17-2012 08:08 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
I would head somewhere between Stratford and Kitchener to start. Even though the strongest storms are going to be in my region, like said earlier, a good band seems to be developing and the centre of it will go through here. But you may want to keep an eye on the models before heading out. Also some more isolated but possibly strong development may even occur in the Sarnia - Chatam corridor. Although heading out there may be a bit of a gamble. If your going to head east, you'd probably have to go past at least Ottawa if you want to get any good action.

Storm Chaser 07-17-2012 09:00 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Brantford to Guelph now in 30% wind now I'm getting excited

davefootball123 07-17-2012 10:11 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
http://www.southernontariochasing.ca...veoutlook.html

My Day 1 up on my site...take a look

DarkSky 07-17-2012 10:24 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Watch issued for today (Tues)

Code:

686
 WWCN11 CWTO 171444
 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 10:44 AM EDT TUESDAY 17 JULY 2012.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
 =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
 =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
 =NEW= ELGIN
 =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
 =NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
 =NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
 =NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
 =NEW= NIAGARA
 =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
 =NEW= HALTON - PEEL
 =NEW= YORK - DURHAM
 =NEW= HURON - PERTH
 =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
 =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
 =NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
 =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
 =NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
 =NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
 =NEW= KALADAR - BANNOCKBURN - BON ECHO PARK
 =NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
 =NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA
 =NEW= GATINEAU
 =NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
 =NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
 =NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE.

      A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
      SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
      FRONT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
      LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT
      CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR AN
      ISOLATED TORNADO OVER EASTERN ONTARIO.

      THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
      THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
      RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
      BULLETINS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC


stormy kid 07-17-2012 12:20 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
ya theres like severe thunderstorm watches all over ontario ! hoping for a good one :)

DarkSky 07-17-2012 12:22 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
I just copy/pasted this from the NOAA site, so I'm unsure if it will stay static (ie: 2 days from now it might show nothing)

edit (day after original post): yes, the image below has changed, so disregard :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/dy1.gif

benjaminblizzard 07-17-2012 01:25 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Tornado warnings issued for Cornwall, Lancaster, Maxville, Alexandria in Eastern Ontario, and Huntingdon, Quebec.

qcstorm 07-17-2012 02:21 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Tornado watches issued throughout most of eastern ontario, the tornado warned storm that moved through has been reported to have a partially rain wrapped wall cloud with it seen northeast on Huntington. The cell that just moved through my region produce some noticeable rotation... Things are getting interesting.

JohnCyr 07-17-2012 03:01 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Was just under the tornado warned cell at mississipi station! Major rotation and draft from under what seemed to be the meat of it! Pics to come!

davefootball123 07-17-2012 03:10 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnCyr (Post 5193)
Was just under the tornado warned cell at mississipi station! Major rotation and draft from under what seemed to be the meat of it! Pics to come!

Very nice, cant wait to see the pics!

DarkSky 07-17-2012 03:21 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Code:

871
 WFCN11 CWTO 171833
 TORNADO WARNING
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 2:33 PM EDT TUESDAY 17 JULY 2012.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 TORNADO WARNING FOR:
 =NEW= BANCROFT - HASTINGS HIGHLANDS - DENBIGH
 =NEW= PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY
 =NEW= BARRY'S BAY - KILLALOE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
      BANCROFT - HASTINGS HIGHLANDS - DENBIGH
      PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY
      BARRY'S BAY - KILLALOE.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 AT PM RADAR SHOWS ROTATION ON A CELL NEAR HIGHWAY 28 BETWEEN DENBIGH
 AND HARDWOOD LAKE.  THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
 CENTENIAL LAKE AND NORCAN LAKE AREAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR
 OCCURRING IN THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
 MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER IMMEDIATELY WHEN
 THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

END/OSPC

Code:

749
 WFCN11 CWTO 171952
 TORNADO WARNING
 UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 3:52 PM EDT TUESDAY 17 JULY 2012.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 TORNADO WARNING FOR:
      CORNWALL - LANCASTER
      MAXVILLE - ALEXANDRIA.

TORNADO WARNING ENDED FOR:
      TAMWORTH - SYDENHAM - SOUTH FRONTENAC
      WESTPORT - CHARLESTON LAKE
      OTTAWA SOUTH - RICHMOND - METCALFE
      PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
      WINCHESTER - NEWINGTON
      PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR
 OCCURRING IN THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
 MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER IMMEDIATELY WHEN
 THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

END/OSPC


JohnCyr 07-17-2012 04:14 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Tornado touched down in summerstown apparently!

Stormydude 07-17-2012 04:27 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Any potential from those storms just exiting Wisconsin?

Smokin Joe 07-17-2012 05:13 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Looks like south central Ontario is going to be a bust for severe unless somethin pops soon

harrisale 07-17-2012 06:10 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe (Post 5198)
Looks like south central Ontario is going to be a bust for severe unless somethin pops soon

Yep.... sitting out in Paris right now waiting for anything. Not looking good currently, a few large towers earlier but nothing much to write home about.

DarkSky 07-17-2012 07:30 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Nice storm passing north of London heading ESE on a path that could take it right to me! Of course, it'll dissipate 20km before it gets here...

obwan 07-17-2012 07:32 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Looks like they are getting some 1" hail north of Mitchell, gusty winds with that cell too. Wonder how far it gets before it dries up???

Raedwulf 07-17-2012 08:04 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Well thats another bust and another one bites the dust..woopty do we all got hyped for nothn except a few locals.

obwan 07-17-2012 08:19 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
I've been watching those clouds pass across lake ontario, they went form small cumulous to 50k footers in no time. Hoe it back builds to the west end of the lake.

Raedwulf 07-17-2012 08:23 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
All that energy wasted again, woohooo! This is why I stopped checking radars/graphs and reading about storm threats because it just doesn't seem to happen anymore....annnnd when it does it's nothing more than some weak winds and a bit of rain

harrisale 07-17-2012 09:20 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Haha! Waited it out and patience paid off. Got a decent show, no serious severe weather but a decent hail cell.

Placed ourselves just south east of Drumbo, which turned out great. Took some pretty cool photos and video, and was treated to a nice lightning show behind the storm.

Felt great to get something after a bit of a bust earlier in the day! Here's a thumbnail of a nice panorama I took, will edit and upload in full size tomorrow.

http://i.imgur.com/o3KKul.jpg

stormy kid 07-17-2012 10:06 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
ya i got nothan well that suck ... but theres always next time :)

harrisale 07-17-2012 10:42 PM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
Here's a better pic of the hail cell from tonight:

http://i.imgur.com/lgbOj.jpg

JohnCyr 07-18-2012 06:03 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hey guys!

So here my story. Got off work early to go meet my parents and help em out deliver furniture to their farm. I work in Barhaven/Manotick just south of Ottawa. When I got off work, Got outside and I saw a nice cell with some major rotation heading for me.I Looked at the radar and The purple part of it was right atop of me. The thing was moving fast and sucking up air/clouds. I was pretty stoked but at the same time, really bummed out because I couldnt bail on the delivery to chase its progression. Either way, Here are some cell phone snaps of the cell as it got closer.

The cell on the radar. Just North West ofn the white dot where the purple is.
http://i.imgur.com/U73Bf.jpg

As it was coming
http://i.imgur.com/KYaZp.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/kWHRa.jpg seems to be a wall cloud down at the right but I can totally be wrong

another view
http://i.imgur.com/eepbP.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/drtY8.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/E7cAo.jpg

the back end and weaker side of it
http://i.imgur.com/ohU8S.jpg

WayfaringStranger 07-18-2012 10:03 AM

Re: Tuesday Storm Threat
 
5 Attachment(s)
Hi All, I'm new to the forum. I have been lurking for a couple years and finally decided to join. We didn't get any storm action here in Oshawa yesterday, but that's usually the case. It seemed to just miss us. Anyway here are some photos I took of the storm bypassing us. These are shot looking toward Lake Ontario. I had to shrink the file size, so I am unsure how the quality will be.
Attachment 5789

Attachment 5790

Attachment 5791

Attachment 5792

Attachment 5793


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